Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in Vietnam: A Comprehensive Review

Introduction 

Climate change poses a significant threat to global food security, with estimates suggesting that it could increase the number of people facing acute food insecurity by 189 million by 2030. Climate change impacts, such as rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events, can significantly decline agricultural production. Vietnam is particularly vulnerable to climate change, ranking fifth among countries most affected by this issue between 1995 and 2015. Its long coastline and extensive alluvial plains make it susceptible to sea-level rise and extreme weather events such as storms, floods, and droughts. These impacts threaten Vietnam’s food security, as over 60% of its population is engaged in agriculture, and the sector accounts for 14% of GDP. Studies have shown that climate change is already affecting agricultural productivity in Vietnam. Rice yields are projected to decline from 0.41 tons per hectare to 0.63 tons per hectare by 2050 without adequate mitigation measures.

This research aims to comprehensively assess the impacts of climate change on food security in Vietnam, considering factors such as extreme weather events, sea-level rise, salinity intrusion, and rising temperatures. The strategic recommendations were developed, and interventions were made to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance Vietnam’s resilience and adaptability.

Moreover, empirical evidence and scholarly discourse were drawn to analyze the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity, livelihoods, and food security in Vietnam and explore adaptive strategies and recommendations tailored to the Vietnamese context, considering interdisciplinary insights and indigenous knowledge systems.

Background 

In investigating the impact of climate change on food security in Vietnam, a thorough literature review identifies knowledge gaps and shapes the theoretical framework essential for the research endeavor.

Key Findings from Scholarly Publications

• Vu et al. (2018) employed the ORYZA model to assess the impact of climate change on rice production in Vietnam, projecting potential declines ranging from 5.3% to 24.6% by 2050, contingent upon climate scenarios.
• Nguyen et al. (2020) conducted risk assessment analyses to examine the vulnerability of food security in Vietnam to climate change, highlighting the Mekong Delta as the most vulnerable region.
• Quyen et al. (2021) focused on the impact of sea-level rise on food security in the Mekong Delta, concluding a potential land loss of 1.7 million hectares in the event of a 1-meter sea-level rise.

Insights from Reports and Publications

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2019) issued a special report on “Climate Change and Land,” emphasizing adverse impacts on global food security, particularly in developing countries like Vietnam.
• The World Bank (2022) forecasts potential declines in Vietnam’s rice production by 8.3% in 2040 and 9.6% in 2050 due to the influence of climate change.
• The National Food Security Council of Vietnam (2021) published a thematic report on the impact of climate change on agriculture and proposed coping solutions.

Limitations of Previous Studies and Research Gaps

Previous studies and reports have provided valuable insights, but they mainly concentrate on specific facets of the issue or are confined to particular research domains. Hence, there is a pressing need for a holistic and multidimensional approach to comprehensively understand the full spectrum of climate change impacts on food security in Vietnam. Certain limitations observed in previous studies warrant addressing. Many prior investigations relied on oversimplified assumptions or focused solely on specific regions or cropping seasons. Consequently, there is a call for research utilizing complex modeling approaches and integrating diverse datasets to attain a more comprehensive understanding. Emerging methodologies such as big data analytics and artificial intelligence hold promise for analyzing and forecasting future impact trends. 

Furthermore, attention must be directed towards the impacts on vulnerable communities such as farmers, fisherfolk, and rural poor. Previous studies often centered on agricultural productivity without thoroughly assessing the effects on livelihoods and incomes. Finally, while prior research and reports have adeptly elucidated issues and analyzed causal relationships, resolving the predicament necessitates concrete solutions and actionable recommendations. Hence, this study offers feasible and sustainable recommendations for the Vietnamese government, communities, and citizens to enhance adaptive capacity and ensure food security amidst climate change challenges.   

Discussions

Food Security Index

According to the World Food Program’s report (2022), Vietnam’s Global Food Security Index in 2021 stood at 61.1 points, ranking 46th out of 113 countries (Figure 1). This score reflects a decline of 2.2 points compared to 2020, indicative of the adverse impact of climate change on food security. The report underscores: “The decline in Vietnam’s Food Security Index is attributed to the dual impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and challenges posed by climate change, particularly severe droughts and floods in 2021”  (see Figure 2).

Agricultural Production

According to data from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, Vietnam achieved a record rice production of 43.7 million tons in 2020. However, as per the World Bank, due to the influence of high temperatures, droughts, and floods caused by climate change, Vietnam’s rice production could decrease by 8.3% in 2040 and 9.6% in 2050 compared to peak levels (World Bank, 2022). A study by the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, and Climate Change also indicates that rice production decreases by approximately 5.8% with each degree Celsius increase in temperature (IMHEN, 2020).

Impact of Natural Disasters

According to data from the National Climate Change Committee, from 2012 to 2022, climate change-related natural disasters such as storms, floods, and droughts resulted in 609 fatalities, over 1.5 million homes destroyed, and directly affected the lives of more than 4 million people in Vietnam These damages disrupt agricultural production and severely affect the incomes and livelihoods of the population, posing a threat to food security (Figure 4).

Saltwater Intrusion and Sea-Level Rise

According to a study done by Ho Chi Minh City University of Agriculture and Forestry, over 1.7 million hectares (approximately two-thirds of the Mekong Delta’s area) are at risk of flooding due to a 1-meter sea-level rise. This region is crucial, contributing 90% of Vietnam’s rice production and 70% of its seafood exports. Saltwater intrusion is also a significant concern, directly impacting coastal agricultural land.

Temperature and RainfallAccording to the report by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (2021), the average temperature in Vietnam has increased by approximately 0.5-0.7°C over the past 50 years. Annual rainfall in some areas has also increased by 5-10% due to climate change, leading to increased risks of severe flooding, adversely affecting  agricultural production.

Conclusion

This comprehensive review dissects the intricate interplay between climate change phenomena and the foundational underpinning of food security within Vietnam’s socio-economic fabric. Its primary contribution lies in synthesizing heterogeneous data sources, offering a consolidated analysis while delineating imperative pathways for adaptive strategies in response to escalating threats. The review meticulously examines the manifold manifestations of climate change, comprising elevated temperatures, shifting precipitation regimes, and episodic extreme weather occurrences. These phenomena collectively imperil agricultural productivity within Vietnam, a nation where agricultural engagement is pronounced, encompassing over 60% of the populace and contributing substantially to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Through an exhaustive survey of scholarly literature and pertinent reports, the review discerns pivotal findings, including prognostications regarding rice production diminution and vulnerability appraisals, notably within the ecologically crucial Mekong Delta region. Furthermore, it identifies lacunae in extant research, underscoring the exigency for comprehensive methodologies, inclusive modeling frameworks, and nuanced evaluations concerning marginalized agrarian communities. The review proffers judicious recommendations for governmental bodies, societal collectives, and individual stakeholders based on empirical evidence and scholarly deliberations. These recommendations, predicated on sustainability paradigms, endeavor to fortify adaptive capacities vis-à-vis climate-induced exigencies, encompassing the spectrum of natural calamities, saline encroachment, and climatic vicissitudes. By marshaling empirical datasets concerning agricultural output, natural calamities, saline intrusion, and climatic vagaries, the review furnishes a cogent portrayal of prevailing conditions within Vietnam. It underscores the deleterious repercussions of climate variability upon agricultural fecundity, livelihood sustenance, and food security integrity, accentuating the pivotal geographic and economic significance of locales such as the Mekong Delta.